Trump Is Backing His Scandalous Ally In Guatemala

News related to Guatemala typically doesn’t generate much buzz with foreign-policy analysts or international media. However, if there is a tie-in to Donald Trump, it has a chance of gaining exposure.

Unfortunately, a brilliant report by McClatchy didn’t receive the attention that it deserved. It pointed to an underhanded diplomacy gesture by the Trump administration to minimize Guatemala’s independent anti-corruption organization, CICIG.

Long story short, the extensive corruption within the Guatemalan government prompted the creation of the CICIG, which is backed by the U.N. The list of high-level Guatemalan officials who have caught in these types of scandals is quite lengthy. It includes the ex-Presidents, Otto Perez Molina, Alvaro Colom, and Alfonso Portillo.  

Likewise, the former Vice President, Roxana Baldetti, is facing corruption charges, along with allegations that she accepted a $250,000 bribe from the Zetas cartel. The former Minister of the Interior also allegedly accepted a $1.5 million bribe from Los Zetas.

Again, this list can go on forever. Hence, there’s an absolute necessity to maintain the strength and independence of the CICIG. However, the President of Guatemala, Jimmy Morales, has taken several measures to tear down this institution.

Jimmy Morales - Flickr - US Embassy in Guatemala

In particular, Morales tried to deport the head of the CICIG, Ivan Velasquez, who is a Colombian. The reason being, Morales and his family are the targets of a wide range of political scandals. Much like Trump, he has tried to paint these scandals as “fake news.” They range from money laundering, links to drug traffickers, corruption, campaign finance laws, and more.

Anyhow, did the thought of deporting the head of the CICIG remind you of the Comey firing? Well, there are numerous other apt comparisons. In fact, there are too many to list in a blog post. However, I have an article with openDemocracy, “Trump-style Latin American Leaders,” which details the many uncanny resemblances between the Trump and Morales administrations. (A series of sexual assault allegations have been directed at Morales since that article was published.)

Morales responded, in kind, by moving the Guatemalan embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and that certainly showed solidarity with Trump. With that in mind, the McClatchy article pointed to pressure exerted by the Trump administration to weaken the CICIG in a variety of ways. All in all, this is another example of the disgraceful transactional foreign policy of the Trump administration. 

Even more despicable is the administration that is being enabled by the U.S. government. A recent article, “The Assassinations of Indigenous Leaders in Guatemala Trigger Fear as Political Cycle Begins,” in Truthout by Jeff Abbott absolutely drives home the point.

I’d definitely recommend reading that article, along with the aforementioned McCarthy article, to understand the extreme implications associated with this decision by the Trump administration. Unfortunately, it falls in line with so many other disastrous foreign policy decisions that have propped up so many tyrants, kleptocrats, dictators, etc.

Narco Terrorists in Peru Mimicking the FARC

The Shining Path is a Peruvian narco terrorist group that peaked in power in the 1990s. In fact, the term “narco terrorism” was coined in 1982 by the President of Peru, Fernando Belaunde Terry, in reference to this group’s activities. The Shining Path funded most of its operations from drug trafficking and extorting “protection” money drug traffickers in Peru.

Peru remains as one of the top cocaine-producing nations in the world and much of it is concentrated in an area known as the VRAEM, the valley of three rivers Apurimac, Ene, and Mantaro. The remaining 300 or so members of the Shining Path maintain a stronghold in this region.

It’s estimated that this communist rebel group killed as many 11,000 civilians. Fortunately, the Shining Path has dwindled in numbers and power, which resulted in far less bloodshed. Only three deaths were attributed to this group in 2015.

However, there seems to be a mini-resurgence of violence committed the Shining Path or successors groups. Two weeks ago, Peruvian terrorists conducted an attack against Peruvian military in VRAEM region that injured six soldiers. Four days earlier they ambushed and killed four police officers.

According to Peru’s newspaper, El Comercio, these attacks were attributed to a successor group of the Shining Path. This group had been known as the Militarized Communist Party of Peru (PCP). However, the group’s new name is the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Peru (FARP). It expresses a clear solidarity with the Colombian narco-terrorist group FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia). 

A Shining Path propaganda poster

We don’t know what will become of the FARP, which is led by a former Shining Path rebel, Victor Quispe Palomino aka Comrade Jose. However, to be fair, the FARC is transitioning to a political party with the same acronym, FARC (The Common Alternative Revolutionary Force). Unfortunately, the newly-elected Colombian President, Ivan Duque, has promised to renege on the 2016 Peace Agreement. 

Most members of the FARC have disbanded, but there are roughly 1,200 dissident members who have refused to lay down their arms. They continue to traffic drugs and commit terrorist acts. In fact, some of it has spilled across the border into Ecuador.

The NBA's "Integrity Fee" Is Ridiculous, But Not Unprecedented (Pt II)

Sports betting has always been highly stigmatized in this country. Hence, when faced with the Pete Rose scandal in the early 90s, most Americans favored a decision that led to more criminalization and prohibition. Consequently, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), which banned the expansion of legal sports betting, was passed in 1992 in a widely bipartisan manner.

On the other hand, sports gambling scandals tend to elicit pleas for more transparency in Europe where most of the market is legal and regulated. That’s exactly what happened in the wake of a €2 million match-fixing scandal in 2005. The German professional soccer league Bundesliga was rocked by revelations that a referee, Robert Hoyzer, had been fixing matches.

That scandal indirectly led to the formation of ESSA (Sports Betting Integrity). This independent organization is funded by 26 legal bookmakers in the European Union. The bookmakers that are members of ESSA share information about suspicious betting information. 

Those companies spend a tremendous amount of money on staffing and software to monitor suspicious betting. As a result, when suspicious behavior is discovered, ESSA files reports that are distributed to the proper gaming regulators. ESSA communicates with 20 of the top sports governing bodies, including FIFA and the IOC. 

Most Americans are completely unaware of ESSA’s existence. That’s most likely why the NBA has been able to lobby for its “Integrity Fee.” To be brief, ESSA (a non-profit organization) has been expertly monitoring suspicious betting for several years and it has done it with only a sliver of the budget demanded by the NBA.
 
With that said, the NBA isn’t the first sports league to lobby for an Integrity Fee. In 2010, the French legislature required bookmakers to pay fees to the respective sports leagues. As a result of that fee and other burdensome taxes, there aren’t many licensed sportsbook operators in France, sixteen to be exact. Thus, roughly 40% of France’s sports betting takes place in the black market.
 
A few other countries have imposed these types of fees as well and the Asser Institute conducted the most comprehensive study on this issue. That study didn’t find these fees to be necessary. Instead, it determined that “integrity benefits…could be achieved well outside the framework of private law.” It also came to the logical conclusion that overtaxing the sports betting industry forces much of the activity into the black market.

By the same token, ESSA has found that sports betting is very likely to take place in the legal market as long the government’s taxes don’t surpass 20% of the sports betting revenue or “hold.” Khalid Ali, the Secretary General of ESSA, mentioned several positive models. However, the U.K. seemed to stand above the rest.

Bookmakers in the U.K. are taxed at 15% of the hold. As a result, there are over 200 licensed operators in the U.K. and, remarkably, only 5% of the betting is believed to occur in the black market.

A fully legalized market results in amazing transparency with twofold benefits. Europe’s bookmakers have to follow strong anti-money laundering laws, which help to deter game fixing. That data also helps to provide better investigative leads into suspicious betting.

To be precise, ESSA issued 266 alerts of suspicious wagering last year. These potential scandals involved eleven different sports and spanned every continent except Antarctica. Notably, seven of these alerts involved six tennis matches and one boxing match in the U.S.

Tennis is responsible for the highest percentage (60%) of alerts worldwide and there are a variety of reasons. To name one, it’s much easier to fix an individual sport. Also, these cases almost always occur in the circuits involving poorly-paid players. The second-most affected sport is soccer with 17% of the alerts. Again, these cases rarely involve the major sports leagues. After all, those players generally make way too much money to be corrupted in this manner.

Wikimedia Commons

Thankfully, transparency helps to identify potential game-fixing in these lower-level circuit games. There are obvious red flags, such as high levels of action on otherwise obscure games. However, this fully regulated environment allows bookmakers to attach advanced risk profiles to their clients that can trigger alerts from a variety of factors, such as geography, activity levels, etc.

All in all, it appears that PASPA will be overturned and there’s a lot of uncertainty in the U.S. for how to proceed with taxation and regulation. However, the international community offers many lessons for the proper guidelines.

The black market can be practically eliminated as long as the taxes are reasonable. That will create substantial transparency and drastically improve sports integrity. Also, there’s no need to impose an Integrity Fee on behalf of the sports leagues. Those efforts can accomplished for a fraction of the price and most of the costs are already absorbed by the bookmakers.

The NBA's "Integrity Fee" is Ridiculous, But Not Unprecedented (Pt I)

In the near future, it’s likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA). States will then have the right to legalize sports betting within their borders.

In fact, several states have already begun drafting proposals in advance of the Supreme Court’s decision. However, the NBA’s proposed “Integrity Fee” will probably be the main obstacle towards progress with legalization and regulation.

Indiana was the first state to draft a bill that would give 1% of every bet in their state to each respective sports league. This idea came from the NBA and MLB with the argument that an expanded legal sports gambling market will increase their costs associated with monitoring that activity. 

In fairness, the sports leagues will need to spend more money on gambling-related staffing if more states legalize sports betting. However, those costs will be minimal in comparison to the profits generated from increased interest as result of legalized gambling. After all, Adam Silver has openly acknowledged that legalization will definitely benefit his industry.

Simply put, the NBA’s lobbying demands are outrageous. The sports leagues don’t charge licensing fees for accepting wagers on their games. Therefore, there’s no reason to believe that the sports leagues have any legal leverage to negotiate for an Integrity Fee.

Also, a 1% fee may sound inconsequential because many people assume that it’s based on a sportsbook’s revenues or “hold.” Instead, the fee would be based on the total dollar amount of accepted wagers, i.e. a sportsbook’s “handle.”

Sportsbooks have a statistical advantage over the bettors, but the house is not guaranteed a profit. Sports gambling is a low-profit industry. Over the last 23 years, Nevada casinos have earned a “hold” of 4.78%. That hold percentage seems to be declining as bettors are becoming more educated about the industry. Regardless, a 1% Integrity Fee would take roughly 21% of the casinos’ sports betting revenues. 

Jay Kornegay, the Director of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, points out that the Integrity Fee doesn’t include the federal excise tax of 0.25% on the handle or Nevada’s 6.75% tax on the hold. Kornegay also estimates that the sportsbook’s operating costs take away roughly 60% of the revenue. Furthermore, the gaming taxes in Nevada are much lower than several other states.  

  

Needless to say, if states pass sport gambling bills that include this Integrity Fee, it will be highly counterproductive. To compensate for the cost, legal sportsbooks may need to charge a higher “vig” or commission than illegal bookmakers. Also, those costs will deter many reputable casino operators from offering sports wagering. Therefore, only a small percentage of the existing black market will shift into the legal/regulated market.

Although the NBA and MLB are presenting this as a “fee,” this is essentially a tax that benefits private companies; it’s the perfect example of crony capitalism. Our country can learn lessons by reviewing its history with over-taxing the gambling industry. In 1951, Congress placed an excise tax of 10% on every sports wager. This was a recommendation from the Kefauver Committee that investigated organized crime.

At that time, the most popular sport for gambling was horse racing, which has a higher profit margin for the sportsbook than most traditional sports. Nonetheless, the 10% excise tax killed the legal betting market.  

However, the demand for sports betting remained undeterred. Nevada hosted several sports-betting-only-facilities that were not operated by casinos. These “turf clubs” were unregulated and notorious for tax dodging. The Vegas bookmaking veteran, Jimmy Vaccaro, explained the simplicity of the scam in Art Manteris’ book, “Super Bookie.” Bookmakers and bettors often had handshake agreements to write betting tickets for small fractions of the actual wager.

Ultimately, this naïve recommendation from the Kefauver Committee resulted in a worst-case scenario. There was very little tax revenue for the government and far less transparency to root out corruption. (Decades later, Congress reduced the federal excise tax to the current 0.25% level, which is four times less than the proposed Integrity Fee from the sports leagues.)

All in all, there are many disturbing aspects to the Integrity Fee. Worst of all, it subtly negates the direct role that sportsbooks play in upholding the integrity of the game. The sports gambling industry has already absorbed the operating costs for upholding integrity. After all, a bookmaker has a vested interest to not accept bets from someone who is fixing games.

Sportsbooks are key allies to the sports leagues for detecting suspicious betting patterns. Case in point, the aforementioned Jimmy Vaccaro contacted the proper authorities in 1994 when he was the Director of the Mirage’s Sportsbook. He witnessed an unusual amount of money bet against Arizona State, among other red flags. In the end, Vaccaro’s information eventually led to criminal charges and discovery of a major point-shaving scandal.

Wikimedia Commons

That is only one of several examples in which bookmakers have acted as unofficial partners with the sports leagues. However, Nevada represents roughly 3% of the actual betting market in this country. In other words, there stands to be far more transparency for discovering more examples of point-shaving if PASPA is overturned, thus improving sports integrity. 

The question of how to properly regulate, tax, and ensure game integrity in an expanded sports betting industry represents uncharted waters in the United States. Thankfully, the international community provides several examples with blueprints for the future.

In fact, proper sports integrity regulation is conducted for only a small fraction of the price demanded by the NBA and that will be detailed fully in Part II.